The AI community has dubbed the coming AI and robot job apocalypse as the "Great Dislocation" and it's going to hurt more than you realize. Here's why.
I can’t see computer programers displacing plumbers and mechanics by doing those jobs. It’s possible that AI robots will replace both, especially mechanics.
“High intelligence developers are going to lose their jobs, reskill to become plumbers, mechanics, and electricians, and dislocate all but the most skilled and experienced skilled tradesmen.”
Yeah, those big brains are going to make them experts at crawling under houses and threading pipe at top speed. I guess I’ll have to see that in real time. It seems as though every yuppie who is also the owner/ operator of a penis thinks they could frame a house. How hard could it be?
Does your model consider the possibility that AI development - and maintenance - might hit a wall? Re: resource depletion to power and cool off data centers? Do you think AI will come up with a solution to climate change before environmental collapse? Or a way to secure enough water for human and non-human animals?
Great insight, thanks for posting. I think there is a complication to the time line on this that I’m not sure you have factored in; it seems to me that nobody own anything anymore and everything they have is on “pay monthly”. When people lose their jobs, they lose the capacity to pay their bills so lose their car, phone, internet etc… as “the transition” starts, the institutions and corporations will quickly realise that they are biting the hand that feeds them and slow it all down. I think this transition is different to the ones you are comparing it to in the level of purchaser disruption it will cause. Why save money on employee costs when it means you are destroying your customer base? Am I missing something?
I think it is not just about lack of “consumers” Anthony, the loss of a job means the loss of everything else too! It’s all pay monthly and if there is no monthly pay it all stops!? Losing one’s job is much more traumatic in this day and age and the social risk of this, at the scale David is talking about, could affect the roll out of the technology?
In the past 40 years, wages have hardly increased, and the considerable productivity gains of computers and automation have accrued to the top. This "money makes money" effect has always existed, but for a while, government intervened by using taxes to recycle the money back down. Now AI is about to devastate the job market and make inequality far worse. Walter Scheidel writes that wealth inequalities are only remedied by disasters: extended warfare, deadly plague, civil revolution, or the collapse of government. I cannot see the plutocracy suddenly deciding that inequality is bad and implementing UBI.
Interesting analysis. Mostly agree. No effect on me but I am very concerned for my grandchildren.
# 1 Grandson - 14 yo, excellent in math and logic. Member of his HS robotics team (likes the hardware and software sides).
# 2 Grandson - 10 yo, intense interest in plumbing at age of 5! Has branched out to electronics (mostly old hardware of any type). Enjoys hands on tasks.
# 1 Granddaughter - 12 yo, fascinated by medical shows (Dr Pimple Popper!), suffers from a number of allergies - would like to be the doctor that finds remedies for her and all children that suffer from said allergies.
They categorically underestimate how fast this technology can be deployed. Cars took decades to saturate. The internet, smartphones, and SaaS took less than a decade. This is probably their core category error.
Furthermore, it seems a bit obtuse to downplay machine autonomy when this is literally what every major AI lab is working on.
The CUA replacing KVM workers is entirely predicated on it being AGI, else it won't be good enough. You're essentially saying AGI will be here in a year or two, and then it's just adoption from there. Without this assumption, your forecast largely collapses. AGI will not be here by 2027.
As a thought experiment for a post-AGI society, this is interesting. As a forecast to guide someone's behaviour and choices right now, this seems way off
Capitalism cannot survive in its current form with 80% unemployment. I am not sure what will replace it but someone must buy all the products that robots will create. So it is either mass population reduction by any means possible or an alternative economic model.
I have a job in logistics, IT support, system design and processes documentation in a small company. That means I’m definitely going to be automated/replaced and actually I’m trying my best to make this happen😊,
I’m encouraging it, because I believe there is one other direction I think will be working and where I’m heading rn: building my own business(es) using AI’s. Its form of art and art will prevail in Post-Labor Economy.
Let me know what you think about this approach. Have a great day.
Given the complexity of what you're doing, you'll probably just replace yourself piecemeal as AI and robots take off, but you'll be the puppeteer for a while.
AI will certainly eliminate some jobs, but like other technologies, it will create new jobs and new opportunities. Technology has made the “means of production” more affordable and accessible than ever before.
I don't believe it's a safe assumption. Technology has never created new jobs. It merely created deflation such that we could allocate money to other demands.
There's no thermodynamic reason that those demands need to be met by humans.
If 80% of the labor force is gone, who are the High Liability/Authenticity/Trust jobs going to do work for? There won't be enough of an economy for them to serve. I think this puts the kabash on your "silver lining".
Anyways, I see where you're coming from and I had to work through that as well. Let's just pick one example: Doctors. There's always a demand for doctors irrespective of the employment status of their patients. Thus, there's a boundary condition - the need for a certain job is uncorrelated with overall employment status. The only question remains - how do you remunerate the doctor for his time if all his patients are broke? There are a few ways: third party payment (insurance, government), distribution (UBI), and so on.
I can’t see computer programers displacing plumbers and mechanics by doing those jobs. It’s possible that AI robots will replace both, especially mechanics.
“High intelligence developers are going to lose their jobs, reskill to become plumbers, mechanics, and electricians, and dislocate all but the most skilled and experienced skilled tradesmen.”
Yeah, those big brains are going to make them experts at crawling under houses and threading pipe at top speed. I guess I’ll have to see that in real time. It seems as though every yuppie who is also the owner/ operator of a penis thinks they could frame a house. How hard could it be?
Does your model consider the possibility that AI development - and maintenance - might hit a wall? Re: resource depletion to power and cool off data centers? Do you think AI will come up with a solution to climate change before environmental collapse? Or a way to secure enough water for human and non-human animals?
There's no point in assuming "progress won't happen" because:
1) That's never been true
2) There's no evidence of it now
3) It amounts to wishful thinking
Great insight, thanks for posting. I think there is a complication to the time line on this that I’m not sure you have factored in; it seems to me that nobody own anything anymore and everything they have is on “pay monthly”. When people lose their jobs, they lose the capacity to pay their bills so lose their car, phone, internet etc… as “the transition” starts, the institutions and corporations will quickly realise that they are biting the hand that feeds them and slow it all down. I think this transition is different to the ones you are comparing it to in the level of purchaser disruption it will cause. Why save money on employee costs when it means you are destroying your customer base? Am I missing something?
Very good point, Declan. Who buys the products and services, if so few people have jobs.
I think it is not just about lack of “consumers” Anthony, the loss of a job means the loss of everything else too! It’s all pay monthly and if there is no monthly pay it all stops!? Losing one’s job is much more traumatic in this day and age and the social risk of this, at the scale David is talking about, could affect the roll out of the technology?
In the past 40 years, wages have hardly increased, and the considerable productivity gains of computers and automation have accrued to the top. This "money makes money" effect has always existed, but for a while, government intervened by using taxes to recycle the money back down. Now AI is about to devastate the job market and make inequality far worse. Walter Scheidel writes that wealth inequalities are only remedied by disasters: extended warfare, deadly plague, civil revolution, or the collapse of government. I cannot see the plutocracy suddenly deciding that inequality is bad and implementing UBI.
Interesting analysis. Mostly agree. No effect on me but I am very concerned for my grandchildren.
# 1 Grandson - 14 yo, excellent in math and logic. Member of his HS robotics team (likes the hardware and software sides).
# 2 Grandson - 10 yo, intense interest in plumbing at age of 5! Has branched out to electronics (mostly old hardware of any type). Enjoys hands on tasks.
# 1 Granddaughter - 12 yo, fascinated by medical shows (Dr Pimple Popper!), suffers from a number of allergies - would like to be the doctor that finds remedies for her and all children that suffer from said allergies.
Any advice ????
🤔
It's over.
Hi David, I'm curious to hear your reaction to the insights in this essay https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/ai-as-normal-technology
They categorically underestimate how fast this technology can be deployed. Cars took decades to saturate. The internet, smartphones, and SaaS took less than a decade. This is probably their core category error.
Furthermore, it seems a bit obtuse to downplay machine autonomy when this is literally what every major AI lab is working on.
The CUA replacing KVM workers is entirely predicated on it being AGI, else it won't be good enough. You're essentially saying AGI will be here in a year or two, and then it's just adoption from there. Without this assumption, your forecast largely collapses. AGI will not be here by 2027.
As a thought experiment for a post-AGI society, this is interesting. As a forecast to guide someone's behaviour and choices right now, this seems way off
Capitalism cannot survive in its current form with 80% unemployment. I am not sure what will replace it but someone must buy all the products that robots will create. So it is either mass population reduction by any means possible or an alternative economic model.
Here are some other ideas.
https://marshallbrain.com/manna
Disagree on therapists beeing untouchable, already people are using the crude bots we have now for therapy and companionship. It was deemed the number 1 use case already in one report from https://learn.filtered.com/thoughts/top-100-gen-ai-use-cases-updated-2025.
So even 20% beeing untouchable is high. Makes you think!
Same for attorneys. AI is already in use for research.
Well Altman did say AI will probably lead to the end of the world
The question is: do you sink, or swim? Don’t sink to the bottom of automation - rise to the top of automation. Become a solopreneur!
I have a job in logistics, IT support, system design and processes documentation in a small company. That means I’m definitely going to be automated/replaced and actually I’m trying my best to make this happen😊,
I’m encouraging it, because I believe there is one other direction I think will be working and where I’m heading rn: building my own business(es) using AI’s. Its form of art and art will prevail in Post-Labor Economy.
Let me know what you think about this approach. Have a great day.
Given the complexity of what you're doing, you'll probably just replace yourself piecemeal as AI and robots take off, but you'll be the puppeteer for a while.
Not for Everyone. But maybe for you and your patrons?
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AI will certainly eliminate some jobs, but like other technologies, it will create new jobs and new opportunities. Technology has made the “means of production” more affordable and accessible than ever before.
I don't believe it's a safe assumption. Technology has never created new jobs. It merely created deflation such that we could allocate money to other demands.
There's no thermodynamic reason that those demands need to be met by humans.
If 80% of the labor force is gone, who are the High Liability/Authenticity/Trust jobs going to do work for? There won't be enough of an economy for them to serve. I think this puts the kabash on your "silver lining".
"Game over man!" :-)
kibosh*
Anyways, I see where you're coming from and I had to work through that as well. Let's just pick one example: Doctors. There's always a demand for doctors irrespective of the employment status of their patients. Thus, there's a boundary condition - the need for a certain job is uncorrelated with overall employment status. The only question remains - how do you remunerate the doctor for his time if all his patients are broke? There are a few ways: third party payment (insurance, government), distribution (UBI), and so on.