How awful! The world — i.e. humanity, global society — is going through an economic & financial transformation, facilitated by computing, robotics and artificial intelligence. Things are changing so very rapidly. Just like the quantity of first class mail dropped precipitously after the ease of using email and the quantity of emails between friends & family members (allowing for the proliferation of junk and notifications emails) dropped dramatically after the ease of using text messaging.
Individual people are a mixture of both good and bad. So are relationships and families and countries/nation-states and political-economic blocks (e.g. the five eyes and the G7 and BRICS+) and the entire world. I think that the idea of the (so-called) “singularity” is as purely fictional and speculative as the Matrix movies and the Terminator movies and the various movies inspired by comic books.
A good read. One more thing to speak to. In previous transitions new things to do replaced obsolete things so employment stayed steady. Now people’s replacements will be mechanical. How people will support themselves needs to be dealt with.
I’m old and old school - most of my fondest memories are from before digital ubiquity, and that’s true of most people my age. So far not the slightest bit impressed by AI - maybe because I remember when we were promised computers would make everything faster and easier - and did neither. But I do have tip for those who want to take a pass on being engulfed in the AI “revolution” - learn an old-school trade like tile setting, shoe repair, or plumbing - they pay handsomely, will NEVER be obsoleted, and will ALWAYS be in demand. And BONUS - those skills travel easily all around the world, and always will. Trust me on this…
I am curious what your thoughts are on the sustainability of AI?
I have been reading about how it is having to use our clean (not salted) water out of our limited supply in order to cool the machines. Each search roughly uses one water bottle. That is just one element that feels unsustainable and I know there are many more.
I so agree with the pattern of reinvention. I also appreciate your thoughts I have seen throughout the comments on how people who’s identity is in intelligence and until its will struggle to adapt to the new world.
While I don’t like anyone suffering I do see a lot of those traits in my parents. They are boomers that are about a decade behind on where the world is headed. I find they struggle to believe how fast it is all happening. I often felt like the weaker more fragile person in my family as a Gen Z/Millennial cusper.
I came out of graduate school for theatre at the end of 2019 to a world without theatre for a few years. I have had to adapt to burnout, fibromyalgia, OCD, and a diagnosis of Autism and ADHD. I have been unable to work much for the last five years. I spent my twenties living with my parents feeling like I failed. But really I do think that it is possible (with massive societal revolution) to have the empathetic people rise up to lead.
Technology could be used to limit how much with have to work so long as there is some form of UBI.
That was such a good movie. It's basically a monkey's paw like it shows you what you "really want" but we're too scared so the super intelligent sphere just manifested our darkest fears.
The other day at a seminar where our senior vice presidents sat at a panel and gushed over AI advances in the company, I laughed a bit at the idea of them doing that in an empty room. The irony of the celebration was pretty thick: we're becoming so efficient we don't need you anymore!
I think it will take a little while longer for this to happen but even if it happens next year I think I'll mostly be OK with it. I've already experience 2 of my own "dark nights of the soul," as I'm on my third "career" as a 38 year old. Maybe the 3rd time is the charm.
Thank you for this, I will be thinking about it for days. Your piece highlights individual reaction to change but made me think of what kind of societal reactions to such huge change we might see that would not be destructive. It made me think of Japan, a very traditionally bound society that is at the same time very accepting of change in many ways. Japan’s shogunate history of avoiding change for hundreds of years gave way suddenly to change in Meiji that in turn after stark militarism gave way after WW2 to a society that embraced modernity. Modern Japanese society is wide open to new ideas also but has no hesitancy in maintaining elements of culture that seem remarkably traditional. There is no culture war at all in Japan. On any TV talk program you will see a mix of presenters that would be impossible elsewhere. That variety is part of the interest and the glue that holds it together is the courtesy that each presenter extends to the others. For example on any discussion panel you may see a punk rocker sitting next to an aged singer, a professor, a comedian, a popular songstress and a writer. They will all have different takes on the subject of discussion but are open and respectful of each other. I think that is the key to managing great change. To not turn inward and maintain openness to others. That kind of tolerance is the only way we will not tear ourselves apart in the coming wave of change.
Ok, I THOUGHT that but with all the dark and dreary imagery I had to ask! 🤣
Yeah, I am in “deep tech” and am extremely optimistic
That said, inequality will increase and the chaos will be very substantial
Amara’s Law prevails: short term impact is overestimated and the long term underestimated
I tell every 20 something that this is the best time to be 20 something. The smart, self motivated and “all in” types will win riches in a new gold rush
The current “elite bureaucrats” ( I speak as one 😉) all over will get decimated
“Low end white collar” work will go the way of the “telephone operator” and “the typist”
The current world of 9-5s cant last. This is necessary, but will probably also include a lot of devastation. As previous industrial revolutions have. I’m just glad I’m debt free
So serious question: how do you move on to the “gardening and writing poetry” mindset when almost everyone’s mortgage is underwater and no one can put gas in their cars because all the jobs are automated away?
Hypothetically in the future. I appreciate your honesty and good writing, but the “catharsis, death and rebirth cycle” you describe seems to be more along the lines of mentally and emotionally accepting that we can’t base our identities in work anymore.
I’m much more concerned about a vast majority of the population living at or near the poverty line because it’s no longer gainful to employ human workers for almost anything as opposed to AIs. It’s hard to “spend my days writing, teaching, taking my dogs to the dog park and hiking” when you’re working 3 minimum wage jobs to pay rent. Is there a reason we think this WON’T happen? Does anyone believe there will be some adjustment that balances the economy and enables some significant amount of the first world to afford a middle-class lifestyle when almost no one is employable?
I would love to see more coherent discussion on the stages we might encounter in this transformation. I know most predictions are wrong but it’s still good to suggest them and create powerful images of what could be.
Will the first 25 % of jobs go quickly but then social and government will counter the shift with new laws and regulations? Or will it happen so fast that it’s not in stages over 10 years but in one increasingly swift wave over 3 years?
David, the real question is how rapidly this change will occur - if progress is slow and steady then I think there will be nothing to worry about, however if it really does accelerate beyond measure then we are screwed...
Despite your now infamous Sep 2024 prediction - would you be brave enough to make another prediction of when you feel AI is going to finally make impact...
But, even a broken clock is right twice a day. What makes you think something will happen today, this month or even this year?
How awful! The world — i.e. humanity, global society — is going through an economic & financial transformation, facilitated by computing, robotics and artificial intelligence. Things are changing so very rapidly. Just like the quantity of first class mail dropped precipitously after the ease of using email and the quantity of emails between friends & family members (allowing for the proliferation of junk and notifications emails) dropped dramatically after the ease of using text messaging.
Individual people are a mixture of both good and bad. So are relationships and families and countries/nation-states and political-economic blocks (e.g. the five eyes and the G7 and BRICS+) and the entire world. I think that the idea of the (so-called) “singularity” is as purely fictional and speculative as the Matrix movies and the Terminator movies and the various movies inspired by comic books.
Excellent
A good read. One more thing to speak to. In previous transitions new things to do replaced obsolete things so employment stayed steady. Now people’s replacements will be mechanical. How people will support themselves needs to be dealt with.
I’m old and old school - most of my fondest memories are from before digital ubiquity, and that’s true of most people my age. So far not the slightest bit impressed by AI - maybe because I remember when we were promised computers would make everything faster and easier - and did neither. But I do have tip for those who want to take a pass on being engulfed in the AI “revolution” - learn an old-school trade like tile setting, shoe repair, or plumbing - they pay handsomely, will NEVER be obsoleted, and will ALWAYS be in demand. And BONUS - those skills travel easily all around the world, and always will. Trust me on this…
I am curious what your thoughts are on the sustainability of AI?
I have been reading about how it is having to use our clean (not salted) water out of our limited supply in order to cool the machines. Each search roughly uses one water bottle. That is just one element that feels unsustainable and I know there are many more.
I so agree with the pattern of reinvention. I also appreciate your thoughts I have seen throughout the comments on how people who’s identity is in intelligence and until its will struggle to adapt to the new world.
While I don’t like anyone suffering I do see a lot of those traits in my parents. They are boomers that are about a decade behind on where the world is headed. I find they struggle to believe how fast it is all happening. I often felt like the weaker more fragile person in my family as a Gen Z/Millennial cusper.
I came out of graduate school for theatre at the end of 2019 to a world without theatre for a few years. I have had to adapt to burnout, fibromyalgia, OCD, and a diagnosis of Autism and ADHD. I have been unable to work much for the last five years. I spent my twenties living with my parents feeling like I failed. But really I do think that it is possible (with massive societal revolution) to have the empathetic people rise up to lead.
Technology could be used to limit how much with have to work so long as there is some form of UBI.
Did you ever see the movie the sphere? This is what I think we do with ai….
That was such a good movie. It's basically a monkey's paw like it shows you what you "really want" but we're too scared so the super intelligent sphere just manifested our darkest fears.
The other day at a seminar where our senior vice presidents sat at a panel and gushed over AI advances in the company, I laughed a bit at the idea of them doing that in an empty room. The irony of the celebration was pretty thick: we're becoming so efficient we don't need you anymore!
I think it will take a little while longer for this to happen but even if it happens next year I think I'll mostly be OK with it. I've already experience 2 of my own "dark nights of the soul," as I'm on my third "career" as a 38 year old. Maybe the 3rd time is the charm.
Great article!!
Thank you for this, I will be thinking about it for days. Your piece highlights individual reaction to change but made me think of what kind of societal reactions to such huge change we might see that would not be destructive. It made me think of Japan, a very traditionally bound society that is at the same time very accepting of change in many ways. Japan’s shogunate history of avoiding change for hundreds of years gave way suddenly to change in Meiji that in turn after stark militarism gave way after WW2 to a society that embraced modernity. Modern Japanese society is wide open to new ideas also but has no hesitancy in maintaining elements of culture that seem remarkably traditional. There is no culture war at all in Japan. On any TV talk program you will see a mix of presenters that would be impossible elsewhere. That variety is part of the interest and the glue that holds it together is the courtesy that each presenter extends to the others. For example on any discussion panel you may see a punk rocker sitting next to an aged singer, a professor, a comedian, a popular songstress and a writer. They will all have different takes on the subject of discussion but are open and respectful of each other. I think that is the key to managing great change. To not turn inward and maintain openness to others. That kind of tolerance is the only way we will not tear ourselves apart in the coming wave of change.
I am actually confused! Are you optimistic about the future or pessimistic ?
Ok, I THOUGHT that but with all the dark and dreary imagery I had to ask! 🤣
Yeah, I am in “deep tech” and am extremely optimistic
That said, inequality will increase and the chaos will be very substantial
Amara’s Law prevails: short term impact is overestimated and the long term underestimated
I tell every 20 something that this is the best time to be 20 something. The smart, self motivated and “all in” types will win riches in a new gold rush
The current “elite bureaucrats” ( I speak as one 😉) all over will get decimated
“Low end white collar” work will go the way of the “telephone operator” and “the typist”
BTW both these sectors were overwhelming women …
Interesting times
Extremely optimistic. But also realistic and pragmatic.
The current world of 9-5s cant last. This is necessary, but will probably also include a lot of devastation. As previous industrial revolutions have. I’m just glad I’m debt free
So serious question: how do you move on to the “gardening and writing poetry” mindset when almost everyone’s mortgage is underwater and no one can put gas in their cars because all the jobs are automated away?
Are you asking about current issues or hypothetical future issues?
Hypothetically in the future. I appreciate your honesty and good writing, but the “catharsis, death and rebirth cycle” you describe seems to be more along the lines of mentally and emotionally accepting that we can’t base our identities in work anymore.
I’m much more concerned about a vast majority of the population living at or near the poverty line because it’s no longer gainful to employ human workers for almost anything as opposed to AIs. It’s hard to “spend my days writing, teaching, taking my dogs to the dog park and hiking” when you’re working 3 minimum wage jobs to pay rent. Is there a reason we think this WON’T happen? Does anyone believe there will be some adjustment that balances the economy and enables some significant amount of the first world to afford a middle-class lifestyle when almost no one is employable?
I've covered this extensively and repeatedly with Post-Labor Economic theory.
https://daveshap.substack.com/t/post-labor-economics
Thank you! (Subscribed now)
I would love to see more coherent discussion on the stages we might encounter in this transformation. I know most predictions are wrong but it’s still good to suggest them and create powerful images of what could be.
Will the first 25 % of jobs go quickly but then social and government will counter the shift with new laws and regulations? Or will it happen so fast that it’s not in stages over 10 years but in one increasingly swift wave over 3 years?
David, the real question is how rapidly this change will occur - if progress is slow and steady then I think there will be nothing to worry about, however if it really does accelerate beyond measure then we are screwed...
Despite your now infamous Sep 2024 prediction - would you be brave enough to make another prediction of when you feel AI is going to finally make impact...