We may all do 'human work' - but I suspect we'll need some functional equivalent of a UBI to make people feel like they can afford to pay for humans to work for them. Maybe if the UBI has a 'base survival' amount and another large amount that can be earned by doing human work (whether paid for or not - might be better socially if nominally unpaid?)
A lot of your impact analysis section seems to focus more on how much Ai can increase total production. E.g. the high impact areas are where more and more Ai might be used to do better and better - while low impact areas like agriculture seem focused on limits on total production.
But the big impact in question here, as in most of your article, is human employment. For example, while total agricultural production might not increase much, I could easily see small farmers being completely replaced with Ai farm management corporations and robotic machinery, with humans only in the loop (for a while at least) as trouble shooters. That'd be a big impact for farmers. Similarly if factories become heavily automated, eliminating those jobs, that would be a huge impact.
We may all do 'human work' - but I suspect we'll need some functional equivalent of a UBI to make people feel like they can afford to pay for humans to work for them. Maybe if the UBI has a 'base survival' amount and another large amount that can be earned by doing human work (whether paid for or not - might be better socially if nominally unpaid?)
A lot of your impact analysis section seems to focus more on how much Ai can increase total production. E.g. the high impact areas are where more and more Ai might be used to do better and better - while low impact areas like agriculture seem focused on limits on total production.
But the big impact in question here, as in most of your article, is human employment. For example, while total agricultural production might not increase much, I could easily see small farmers being completely replaced with Ai farm management corporations and robotic machinery, with humans only in the loop (for a while at least) as trouble shooters. That'd be a big impact for farmers. Similarly if factories become heavily automated, eliminating those jobs, that would be a huge impact.
Nice analysis David! I ran a similar analysis using speculative design in my last YT video https://youtu.be/1K1FmEL7u2I
Imo, the future is ubi and meaningful work followed by soma and transhumanism.