The current leadership in the most critical countries in the world in 2025.
USA-Trump (an ignorant, narcissistic populist)
China-Xi (an ideologue beholden to an unelected ruling clique)
Russia -Putin (a modern-day Hitler)
Cognitive hyperintelligence will initially be in control of the few as it will require immense resources only available to those already possessing these resources. These people/countries/companies/groups have as their primary motivation to maintain and develop their power and influence. Many/most have little thought or interest in the overall well-being of humankind. They are short-term thinkers and devoted to the pursuit of their immediate advantage. Since they will have first access to the powerful AIs they will be able to shape its development and initial use.
Conclusion:
There is every reason to believe, once one understands the above, that the outcome of the coming hyperintelligence era will be catastrophically bad.
Yea there will be more possibilities to localize the production, but, who is going to control the technology for production and maintenance of machines, robots, who is going to control IP rights and enforce their related economical/control interests? I recently chated with a friend about the vale capture in housing construction market. We live in The Netherlands and here housing construction is well automated and simplified. Construction companies use the same components on massive scale, many of them locally sourced, housing is done in larger units and blocks, interior is frugal and simplified to reduce manual labor etc. The value arising from technological and organisational advancement that were made in the precious decades seems to be mostly captured by large businesses and companies. The consumers nowadays have to pay much more for the housing relative to their income. The technology advanced but the affordability for the end consumer is on the lower end of the scale now. This additionally increased the economic gaps in society and contributed to further stratification and inequality in society. The AI and robotic technology is much more complex, the ownership, knowledge, intellectual property aspects and building capabilities much more concentrated and the states/nations play less role in this sector compared to others, like mentioned construction. The question is what groups and oligarchies are going to control the production distribution and use of this technology and for whose benefit it will be applied. I make the association with the movie Elysium. If I remember correctly, there a minority of people control access to technology. There was an extraordinary healing station intentionally built in the orbit to restrict the access to it to the common people. The anothe thing that I want to comment is the availability and control of the resources. Regions such as EU have exploited some of low hanging resource fruits. Colonisation today is not easy to impose. USA is still holding up to some degree more or less, with it's degrading military power used to enforce resource extraction. European nations are losing ground, for instance, in Africa,and they are already irrelevant player in Asia. You can have acces to cheap labour in form of advanced tec, assuming that the access to technology and production of robots, chips, sensors, actuators, ai models, is wide and democratised (see above). The other components to make this production cheap, and relatively advantageous compared to other players, are resources and energy. The accesa to these also plays an important role in the overall equation. Finally, I would also mention IQ aspect. The use of complex technology requires some IQ capability. The requirements seem to be increasing. Some parts of the population will not be capable to catch and deliver.
It may be a reasonable premise to work from, but I think we should precede from the initial condition that a significant fraction of humanity are malignant, selfish and horribly stupid and dangerous,…(fuck byproducts), that need to be ultimately “managed”. Think of any fraction of humanity that can’t think through the full implications of nuclear warfare and are just fine with doing that if certain conditions cross an emotional threshold for them. These humans will need to be properly identified and managed as threats to life on the planet. They’re too stupid to actually understand this fact for themselves.
The physical world is heavily regulated. The people the high castle don't get the concept of abundance. Whereas in the digital world (Internet) its so open and accessible.
A few cases I can say is around the $MIRA & $Trump. Both small experiments but have such a huge impact.
I want to play to improve the physical world this will be important in long-term but its so red tapped.
btw great article, i agree luddites are going to be a major problem. misinformation is wild and the scarier part is I am acutally seeing it in real life through people I knows misinformed beliefs
Thank you for listing the human centric bottlenecks; finaly someone in the AI optimists sphere naming the elephant in the room. Now what to do with it: from what I understand you intent to adress those potential problems when they'll eventually rise. Is there really nothing we can do to try and mitigate the Tsunami that's about to hit the global workforce? Well, for people other that ourselves that do see it coming I mean. Because the one thing I got out of this article, is that I better get my anxiety-ridden ass in motion and learn to exploit AI tech as best as I can to benefit from it. Either by directly producing something to sell with it or by consulting for companies who want to integrate AI. Otherwise, there is a good chance that future me will be even more anxiety ridden, but this time under a bridge... Assuming that I'd be still alive in the first place.
The ”Agentic AI Redundance Tsunami ” will hit the global workforce very unevenly, substituting the present spacebased geographical low-cost seeking ”carousel” for a timebased technological one. In area after area automation is going to kick in, where the niche needs of a global consumer community will supplant Employers as the basis for financial income for most. With the help of AI-based global transactional network infrastructure, every ”prosumer” in the world will have the chance of turning personal preferred activities into financial income. UBI will probably become a reality in industrial economies as autonomous manufacturing systems cause massive layoffs.So , task # 1 for governments seems to be ensuring that the necessary prosumer transactional interfaces and infrastructures needed by a global ”Prosumer Work/Hobby Force” are financed, designed and put in place ASAP.
My wife and I have a successful fundraising copywriting business. We're also super closely following AI since October '22, with awe and trepidation. I'm a doomer but with some e/acc tendencies. Not a Luddite, just don't see us wielding Excalibur safely. Obviously hoping e/acc is correct. Your comments on job losses and pivoting make sense to me. We are looking at various pivot scenarios. I consider myself pretty AI capable at this point. We very regularly use ChatGPT Pro, Claude, and Suno. Also use Sora, Image FX, Otter AI, Elevenlabs... Just wondering how you envision companies looking to hire AI power users verifying their bona fides. Thoughts?
Yes, the status Quo is a significant bottleneck.
These systems will create hyperabundance for those embrace it.
Humans don't always like change and exponential change might be
overwhelming. In addition to outlining the benefits, we also should
be creating a framework for people to psychologically cope with
having to non-stop pivot to remain competitive.
Many see AI as the enemy, and we'll need to help them adjust.
No o3 mini isn't going to eat you LMAO.
Consider:
The current leadership in the most critical countries in the world in 2025.
USA-Trump (an ignorant, narcissistic populist)
China-Xi (an ideologue beholden to an unelected ruling clique)
Russia -Putin (a modern-day Hitler)
Cognitive hyperintelligence will initially be in control of the few as it will require immense resources only available to those already possessing these resources. These people/countries/companies/groups have as their primary motivation to maintain and develop their power and influence. Many/most have little thought or interest in the overall well-being of humankind. They are short-term thinkers and devoted to the pursuit of their immediate advantage. Since they will have first access to the powerful AIs they will be able to shape its development and initial use.
Conclusion:
There is every reason to believe, once one understands the above, that the outcome of the coming hyperintelligence era will be catastrophically bad.
Would you be executing/building around post labour economics in your discord forum?
Yea there will be more possibilities to localize the production, but, who is going to control the technology for production and maintenance of machines, robots, who is going to control IP rights and enforce their related economical/control interests? I recently chated with a friend about the vale capture in housing construction market. We live in The Netherlands and here housing construction is well automated and simplified. Construction companies use the same components on massive scale, many of them locally sourced, housing is done in larger units and blocks, interior is frugal and simplified to reduce manual labor etc. The value arising from technological and organisational advancement that were made in the precious decades seems to be mostly captured by large businesses and companies. The consumers nowadays have to pay much more for the housing relative to their income. The technology advanced but the affordability for the end consumer is on the lower end of the scale now. This additionally increased the economic gaps in society and contributed to further stratification and inequality in society. The AI and robotic technology is much more complex, the ownership, knowledge, intellectual property aspects and building capabilities much more concentrated and the states/nations play less role in this sector compared to others, like mentioned construction. The question is what groups and oligarchies are going to control the production distribution and use of this technology and for whose benefit it will be applied. I make the association with the movie Elysium. If I remember correctly, there a minority of people control access to technology. There was an extraordinary healing station intentionally built in the orbit to restrict the access to it to the common people. The anothe thing that I want to comment is the availability and control of the resources. Regions such as EU have exploited some of low hanging resource fruits. Colonisation today is not easy to impose. USA is still holding up to some degree more or less, with it's degrading military power used to enforce resource extraction. European nations are losing ground, for instance, in Africa,and they are already irrelevant player in Asia. You can have acces to cheap labour in form of advanced tec, assuming that the access to technology and production of robots, chips, sensors, actuators, ai models, is wide and democratised (see above). The other components to make this production cheap, and relatively advantageous compared to other players, are resources and energy. The accesa to these also plays an important role in the overall equation. Finally, I would also mention IQ aspect. The use of complex technology requires some IQ capability. The requirements seem to be increasing. Some parts of the population will not be capable to catch and deliver.
It may be a reasonable premise to work from, but I think we should precede from the initial condition that a significant fraction of humanity are malignant, selfish and horribly stupid and dangerous,…(fuck byproducts), that need to be ultimately “managed”. Think of any fraction of humanity that can’t think through the full implications of nuclear warfare and are just fine with doing that if certain conditions cross an emotional threshold for them. These humans will need to be properly identified and managed as threats to life on the planet. They’re too stupid to actually understand this fact for themselves.
So if one knows to leverage these tools. So should they work to create abundance in the digital world or work to improve the physical world?
Why do you propose it's an either or? What deficit are you holding that makes you think they are separate?
The physical world is heavily regulated. The people the high castle don't get the concept of abundance. Whereas in the digital world (Internet) its so open and accessible.
A few cases I can say is around the $MIRA & $Trump. Both small experiments but have such a huge impact.
I want to play to improve the physical world this will be important in long-term but its so red tapped.
It seems that there are 4.5million doctoral degrees in the US alone as of 2018, so I think the world-wide total is likely an underestimate
btw great article, i agree luddites are going to be a major problem. misinformation is wild and the scarier part is I am acutally seeing it in real life through people I knows misinformed beliefs
Hence this will be extensive used by developing countries where the doctors are less and the quality is bad.
Thank you for listing the human centric bottlenecks; finaly someone in the AI optimists sphere naming the elephant in the room. Now what to do with it: from what I understand you intent to adress those potential problems when they'll eventually rise. Is there really nothing we can do to try and mitigate the Tsunami that's about to hit the global workforce? Well, for people other that ourselves that do see it coming I mean. Because the one thing I got out of this article, is that I better get my anxiety-ridden ass in motion and learn to exploit AI tech as best as I can to benefit from it. Either by directly producing something to sell with it or by consulting for companies who want to integrate AI. Otherwise, there is a good chance that future me will be even more anxiety ridden, but this time under a bridge... Assuming that I'd be still alive in the first place.
The ”Agentic AI Redundance Tsunami ” will hit the global workforce very unevenly, substituting the present spacebased geographical low-cost seeking ”carousel” for a timebased technological one. In area after area automation is going to kick in, where the niche needs of a global consumer community will supplant Employers as the basis for financial income for most. With the help of AI-based global transactional network infrastructure, every ”prosumer” in the world will have the chance of turning personal preferred activities into financial income. UBI will probably become a reality in industrial economies as autonomous manufacturing systems cause massive layoffs.So , task # 1 for governments seems to be ensuring that the necessary prosumer transactional interfaces and infrastructures needed by a global ”Prosumer Work/Hobby Force” are financed, designed and put in place ASAP.
My wife and I have a successful fundraising copywriting business. We're also super closely following AI since October '22, with awe and trepidation. I'm a doomer but with some e/acc tendencies. Not a Luddite, just don't see us wielding Excalibur safely. Obviously hoping e/acc is correct. Your comments on job losses and pivoting make sense to me. We are looking at various pivot scenarios. I consider myself pretty AI capable at this point. We very regularly use ChatGPT Pro, Claude, and Suno. Also use Sora, Image FX, Otter AI, Elevenlabs... Just wondering how you envision companies looking to hire AI power users verifying their bona fides. Thoughts?
Blockchain verified credentials will the future. I see some hackers trying to build this.
Thank you for explaining this in “orders” David. It really helps to navigate the complexity of the topic