The Solarpunk Future is Taking Shape

Solar + AI + Robots will create a seismic shift in the economy and society. Let's unpack how some of these changes might unfold. The best part? It's all automatic! Labor arbitrage is dying!

The US is doubling its solar capacity roughly every 2.5 years, and that is accelerating. That means we could be about 9 years away from solar sovereignty.

I’ve been a big fan of first principles thinking lately, which is basically a pretentious way of saying “let’s look at the math.”

So, let’s look at some math, specifically, installed solar capacity:

• 2020: 97 GW

• 2021: 113 GW

• 2022: 137 GW

• 2023: 210 GW

I gave these numbers to ChatGPT o1-preview and asked it to forecast where we’ll be by 2030 and 2035. The numbers are staggering.

It looks like we’ll be at 1,125 GWh by 2030 and nearly 4 TWh by 2035 if these trends continue (they might not… but they might accelerate)

You know what else is taking shape at this time?

Robots! AGI!

So, America will have what I’m calling “solar sovereignty” within a decade or so. This is a vague hand-wavy as-yet-formally-defined really-just-a-vibe term I’m using internally. And then at the same time, we’re seeing the rapid rise of AI, AGI, and general purpose humanoid robots.

Solar sovereignty can be defined as a state of energy independence where a nation or region generates sufficient solar power to meet or exceed its total energy needs during daylight hours, fundamentally reshaping its economic and political possibilities. This goes beyond mere energy independence, as solar sovereignty specifically implies the ability to power automated systems and production facilities with nearly-free daytime energy, enabling new forms of economic organization and production that were previously impossible under fossil fuel constraints. Solar sovereignty represents not just energy self-sufficiency, but the foundation for a post-labor economy where energy becomes too cheap to meter during peak solar hours.

A more technical definition might be: Solar sovereignty is achieved when a nation’s installed solar capacity can generate enough power during daylight hours to meet or exceed its maximum historical power demand, creating the potential for energy abundance that enables new forms of automated production and economic organization.

Soon, we’ll have solar-powered robots that are each smarter than everyone you’ve ever met, in terms of problem-solving and knowhow. So let’s characterize, in first principles, what this actually does to the economy.

It’s not just about “energy is cheaper” therefore we can do more things with it, which is true. But this allows for fundamentally new patterns of production.

Labor Arbitrage is Toast

Why do we have globalization right now? Yeah, you probably remember from high-school social studies that “trade is good.” If I have lumber and you have iron, we both benefit from trade. But this doesn’t really justify globalization, particularly when nations like America have plenty of our own forests and steel production.

Globalization is predicated on labor arbitrage, which is basically “cost of living and labor protection is cheaper over there, so it’s cheaper to pay poor workers in Singapore subsistence wages.”

Labor arbitrage is the practice of exploiting wage differences between regions or countries by moving production to areas with lower labor costs, even when accounting for reduced productivity, increased shipping costs, and additional complexity in management and logistics. This strategy has been the primary driver of globalization and manufacturing outsourcing since the 1970s, with corporations moving production from high-wage regions like the United States and Europe to low-wage regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America. Labor arbitrage fundamentally depends on human labor being a significant portion of production costs and the wage differential being large enough to offset the additional costs and risks of operating across greater distances.

When artificial intelligence and robotics make automated labor both cheaper and more capable than human labor regardless of location, labor arbitrage becomes mathematically impossible—essentially removing one of the primary economic forces driving current patterns of global trade and production. This shift invalidates decades of corporate strategy built around chasing cheaper labor markets. This means that locality and proximity will suddenly become much larger economic factors influencing production!

But robots will be better, faster, cheaper, and safer than humans. Plus they will be nearby. One of the immediate impacts of this is that off-shoring ends pretty quickly. Instead, proximity will be far more valuable than anything else, which very sharply disrupts the need for global supply chains.

First Order Impacts

Below are some of the immediate and obvious impacts from the one-two punch of achieving solar sovereignty combined with AI and robotics.

Solar Changes Everything: Solar power isn’t just getting cheaper—it’s becoming nearly free during peak hours. This means you can run energy-intensive processes during the day basically for free. Every roof, parking lot, and unused space becomes a potential power plant. We’re not just talking about energy independence at a national level—we’re talking about energy independence at the local level.

AI and Robots Kill Labor Arbitrage: When you nuke labor costs from orbit, the whole game changes. Suddenly, it doesn’t matter if workers in China make $2/hour because robots don’t care about wages. Factory complexity doesn’t matter because AI manages everything. Skill shortages? Gone. The only real costs become setup and energy—and we just solved energy with solar. But remember, onshoring means that you get a proximity bonus! Short supply lines are better than global supply chains.

What Happens When You Combine These: The math gets wild. Local production hubs powered by solar become more efficient than massive overseas factories. Recycling locally costs less than shipping waste around the world. Cities can become largely self-sufficient in basic goods. The whole economy starts optimizing for distance rather than labor costs.

Here’s the kicker—this isn’t some forced reorganization or policy mandate. This is just what happens naturally when you remove energy scarcity and labor arbitrage as constraints. It’s like watching water flow downhill once you remove the dams. The economy naturally reorganizes around shorter supply chains, local production, and distributed manufacturing.

The solarpunk future isn’t something we need to force—it’s what emerges automatically from these fundamental changes in energy and labor economics.

Second Order Impacts

Now let’s see how just these two changes will have downstream influences on corporations, government, and society itself.

Corporate Adaptation

Manufacturing giants like Apple and Tesla face an existential crisis. Their entire strategy is built on massive centralized factories and global supply chains. But when labor costs don’t matter and energy is nearly free during the day, this model stops making sense. The smart ones will transform their massive factories into networks of smaller automated facilities closer to their markets. Think of it like the shift from mainframes to distributed computing, but for manufacturing. (To be fair, Tesla is already trying to do this by creating a repeatable Gigafactory model)

Retail giants like Walmart and Amazon are in for a wild ride too. Their whole advantage is built on logistics networks and purchasing power. But what happens when local production becomes cheaper than shipping stuff across the world? They’ll need to transform from “moving goods globally” to “orchestrating local production.” Amazon might become more like a platform for coordinating local manufacturing than a global shipping empire. I mean, just define Amazon’s business model in three words: global product catalogue.

Even energy companies have to evolve or die. The old model of centralized power plants and one-way distribution is becoming obsolete. With solar and microgrids, they’ll need to transform from “power providers” to “grid orchestrators,” managing complex networks of local energy production and storage. Or, in my preferred model, just go the way of the dinosaurs. Maybe the “national grid” becomes a thing of the past? I don’t know, I’d have to talk to some electrical engineers.

The corporations that survive will be the ones that see this coming. They need to start investing in distributed production now, build expertise in managing networks rather than hierarchies, and position themselves for a world where labor costs don't matter and energy is nearly free during the day. Think about how IBM transformed from hardware to services—that’s the level of reinvention we’re talking about.

The smart ones will ride this wave. The stubborn ones will become the next Kodak. Pretty straightforward math, really.

Government Adaptation

Let’s start with cities and counties because that’s where the real action happens. Right now, we’re seeing early signs of what’s coming with farm-to-table movements and community solar projects. But that’s just the beginning. The real shift happens when we reimagine our neighborhoods for local production. Those strict zoning laws that separated manufacturing from everything else? They were designed for a world of smoke stacks and labor shifts. When manufacturing means quiet, clean, solar-powered robots, we can completely rethink how we organize our communities. The focus shifts to maximizing solar coverage, building robust internet infrastructure, and creating microgrids. Towns that get this right create the foundation for everything else. Under Post-Labor Economics, we favor subsidiarity, which means that we want to see towns, cities, and counties doing as much of the heavy lifting as possible. One rule of thumb is enablement. Another is self-sufficiency, but not forcing it. A nearby city to me, Wilson, NC, started by overhauling its internet infrastructure to attract more tech. Easy peasy, really.

I want to live in this town.

States have an even more interesting opportunity—they can bring back the original meaning of “trade is good.” Instead of competing globally, states can optimize for internal trade between cities. Think about North Carolina: the Research Triangle (RTP) handles advanced chip manufacturing, coastal towns bring back furniture and textile production, and the piedmont focuses on agriculture. Each region plays to its strengths, but now with automated production and nearly-free solar energy. The goal becomes state-level self-sufficiency with smart regional specialization. It’s like traditional trade routes, but powered by AI and solar. States might end up focusing on internal trade as much as possible, shortening supply lines.

The federal government has two crucial jobs. First, fight the inevitable resistance from powers that be—the fossil fuel giants and corporations that profit from the current system won’t go quietly. Second, and more importantly, create the standards and frameworks that let this new economy spread as fast as possible. We need interoperability standards for AI systems, solar installations, and microgrids. We need policies that accelerate the transition to solar sovereignty and automated production. Basically, the feds need to double down on solar and AI policy while clearing the road blocks thrown up by entrenched interests.

This isn’t about forcing change—it’s about recognizing and enabling the natural evolution of our economy. The jurisdictions that adapt first will thrive. The ones that resist will wonder why they’re being left behind.

Social Adaptation

This is the one I'm most excited about. This is where Solarpunk truly shines (no pun intended). Plenty of people will still want to move to the big city for social reasons. At the same time, let's look at what will change in rural America.

When you combine AI expertise with robotic capabilities, suddenly every small town can offer world-class everything. Your local clinic? Staffed with AI doctors and robotic surgery capabilities that match the best hospitals in the world. Education? Every child gets personalized AI tutoring that adapts to their learning style, plus access to virtual reality experiences that make learning come alive. Need your car fixed? AI-guided robotic mechanics that never make mistakes. Want to start a business? Automated manufacturing facilities that can produce sophisticated products right there in your hometown.

I recently moved away from the big city in preparation for this future, but I was quickly bitchslapped by reality. The local car dealership was just fundamentally unqualified to work on my car. Ah, yes, rural brain-drain. Anyone with exceptional automotive skills will have gotten a job elsewhere, namely in the big cities where salaries are higher.

This changes everything about rural life. The brain drain to cities? Gone—you don’t need to leave town to access opportunity. Cultural isolation? Ancient history when you can participate in global culture while maintaining local traditions. Those “service deserts” where you can’t find good healthcare or education? Eliminated by AI and automation. The technical limitations that kept sophisticated industries out of small towns? Solved by robots and nearly-free solar energy. The economic dependency on distant urban centers? Broken by local production capabilities.

But here’s where it gets really interesting: this transformation goes both ways. Cities will feel less pressure as essential services become distributed. Instead of being islands of civilization surrounded by “podunk” towns, cities can evolve into what they do best—being centers of human interaction and creativity. When you don’t need to move to the city for education, healthcare, or economic opportunity, urban areas can focus on what makes them unique: the density of human connection and cultural exchange. (For reference, in complex systems theory, cities are “more productive” the larger they get because, mathematically, the afford infinitely more combinations of human interactions)

We’re not just talking about technology here—we’re talking about healing one of the deepest divides in modern society. The urban/rural split that’s caused so much political and cultural tension? It starts to fade when every community can offer world-class opportunities while maintaining its unique identity. Young people won’t have to choose between “staying local” and "moving to the big city” like in that song Jack and Diane. Communities can preserve their character while embracing global capabilities.

This is the true promise of the solarpunk future—not just technological advancement, but the rebirth of local community without sacrificing global connection. Every town becomes viable. Every community gets access to the best humanity has to offer. And our cities? They become what they were always meant to be—not just economic centers, but vibrant hubs of human culture and creativity.

Recap

Okay, here’s a glossary of terms as a sort of TLDR:

1. Solar Sovereignty: A state of energy independence where a nation generates sufficient solar power to meet or exceed its total energy needs during daylight hours, enabling nearly-free daytime energy for automated production. At current growth rates, the US could achieve this within 9-ish years.

2. Labor Arbitrage: The practice of exploiting wage differences between regions by moving production to areas with lower labor costs, even when accounting for reduced productivity and increased shipping costs. This primary driver of globalization becomes mathematically impossible when AI and robotics make automated labor cheaper than human labor regardless of location.

3. Circadian Production: Rather than fighting natural cycles with expensive energy storage, production adapts to solar rhythms. Energy-intensive processes run during peak solar hours using nearly-free energy, while less intensive tasks occur during night hours using minimal stored power.

4. Local Production Networks: When labor costs don’t matter and energy is nearly free during the day, manufacturing naturally shifts from centralized global facilities to distributed local production hubs optimized for proximity to markets.

5. Production Neighborhoods: The need to separate manufacturing from residential areas disappears when production becomes clean, quiet, and automated. Zoning laws evolve to allow small-scale automated manufacturing integrated with community life.

6. Corporate Evolution: Companies must shift from centralized hierarchies to distributed networks. Manufacturing giants move from massive factories to local production networks, retailers transform from logistics operators to production orchestrators, and energy companies evolve from power providers to grid coordinators.

7. Subsidiarity: Economic and political decisions are pushed to the lowest effective level capable of handling them. Cities focus on enabling local production, states optimize internal trade between regions, and federal government creates standards while fighting entrenched interests.

8. Rural Renaissance: AI expertise and robotic capabilities eliminate the need for concentrated resources, enabling rural communities to offer world-class healthcare, education, and services without losing their identity. The urban/rural divide fades as every community gains access to global capabilities while maintaining local character.

9. Microgrids and Energy Independence: Energy production and distribution shift from centralized utilities to local microgrids powered by solar, enabling community-level energy independence and resilience.

10. Post-Labor Economics: An economic framework where automation and solar energy make human labor and energy costs negligible, naturally driving shorter supply chains, local production, circular material flows, and distributed manufacturing without requiring forced reorganization.

11. Market Proximity Optimization: When labor arbitrage dies and energy becomes locally abundant, distance becomes the primary economic constraint. This fundamental shift causes a natural reversal of globalization, as the costs of transportation and logistics outweigh any remaining benefits of centralized production. Companies optimize for producing goods as close as possible to their end markets, leading to a renaissance of regional trade and local manufacturing. This isn't anti-global trade, but rather a mathematical rebalancing where only truly rare or specialized resources need to move long distances.

Wu-wei: Following the Trends

As libertarian as I am sometimes (I would personally like to see the end of corporate hegemony) I recognize that there are natural forces and macro-trends at play here. Rather than fighting the current, this blog post came about by just seeing where the current trends go. Where does the river lead? There are certainly things that cities and states can do wrong to harm this process, but at the same time, the rise of solar and AI is inexorable now. Our future is inextricably tied to solar and robots. So I wanted to see what the natural consequences of this would be, from a first-principles perspective.

But I wanted to focus on the natural evolution as technology reshaped our economic and social landscape. If your rural town suddenly has AGI-powered robots, what are the consequences? It seems pretty obvious when you look at it this way… every child gets a world-class education, you don’t need to travel for world-class healthcare, and all service deserts disappear pretty quickly. You just need internet and solar infrastructure.