Did Aschenbrenner really predict that? Reads copied one by one from AI2027. In that scenario, by the way, China is able to steal the model weights (only once) through their numerous spies...
Ehh chinese models are not too far behind in absolute performance and already 5-10x better in efficiency.
Their compute is catching up rapidly..and compute needs power. Where China is already far ahead of US.
In fact in terms of AI innovation it could be argued that China is ahead in many ways - their diffusion and gpt architectures are already more sophisticated because they do not have luxury of brute forcing it with compute.
In any case it is good that China is much more open and generous with their AI models and weights. Open sourcing them and providing alternative to US control
if Trump is serious about Fable then both premises ars false.
fable tokens will get very expensive for the people Anthropic are allowed to serve. OpenAi are in the same boat.
MiniMax 3.0 is close to Claude, in six months when the next Chinese models are out they will top what US models are allowed to serve and in 12 months the US labs will be irrelevant. nobody will pay for US tokens when Chinese tokens ars better. cheaper wont matter at that point.
Indeed. The vibes has really shifted :’(
I have this article from yesterday on it, and another one coming by tomorrow... here's a DEEP dive on this whole Fable affair: https://medium.com/@epic.win.pro.media/resolution-is-not-leverage-c9f62198353b
Did Aschenbrenner really predict that? Reads copied one by one from AI2027. In that scenario, by the way, China is able to steal the model weights (only once) through their numerous spies...
Ehh chinese models are not too far behind in absolute performance and already 5-10x better in efficiency.
Their compute is catching up rapidly..and compute needs power. Where China is already far ahead of US.
In fact in terms of AI innovation it could be argued that China is ahead in many ways - their diffusion and gpt architectures are already more sophisticated because they do not have luxury of brute forcing it with compute.
In any case it is good that China is much more open and generous with their AI models and weights. Open sourcing them and providing alternative to US control
Hey Dave, I wonder what you think about this critique of AI and would love to hear your reaction to Zitron’s points https://youtu.be/jDGPnaX-86Y?is=1G-9uvTrZ6-YeppS
Ed is a short-term thinking reactionary parrot
if Trump is serious about Fable then both premises ars false.
fable tokens will get very expensive for the people Anthropic are allowed to serve. OpenAi are in the same boat.
MiniMax 3.0 is close to Claude, in six months when the next Chinese models are out they will top what US models are allowed to serve and in 12 months the US labs will be irrelevant. nobody will pay for US tokens when Chinese tokens ars better. cheaper wont matter at that point.
So either trump relents or the USA looses.
And the conversation moves fast!
Interesting days ahead.